They've allowed the most points this season, and they are facing a team that can put up points.įootball is all about matchups, and this is a bad one for the Gamblers. Their D ranks seventh in EPA which is next to last in the league. Look for the Gamblers to struggle defensively. I don't see them putting up points against a Breakers team allowing just 14 points per game. However, they are dead last in the league on third downs, only converting 23.3% of those opportunities. Houston ranks fourth in the league in offensive success rate, which explains their ability to score, averaging a second-best in the league, 23.6 points per game.
Lastly, they lead the league in sacks with 11. They are also plus-two in turnovers, forcing six turnovers to four giveaways. The Breakers' quarterback Kyle Sloter leads the league with 657 passing yards while competing 60.2% of his pass attempts (league-best). They've achieved this while scoring 70 points, which puts them near the league's top. They've only allowed 42 points which is second-best in the USFL. The Breakers come into this game ranked second in defensive expected points added (EPA) and second in offensive EPA. I like the Breakers to win their third game of the season by at least a touchdown against the Gamblers this weekend.
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